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☆ US economy: IMF raises growth forecast and urges caution on rate cuts
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-16 | by ( Hanna Ziady | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

The IMF upgraded Tuesday its forecast for US economic growth to 2.7% this year — 0.6 percentage points higher than it predicted as recently as January. The Washington-based IMF expects the 20 countries that use the euro to grow just 0.8% this year, a downgrade of 0.1 percentage points from its January forecast. The global economy, meanwhile, is seen expanding by 3.2%, 0.1 percentage points more than predicted in January. China’s economy, the second-largest in the world, is forecast to grow 4.6%, while India is expected to notch growth of 6.8%. In contrast to the United States, “there is little evidence of overheating” in the euro area, according to Gourinchas.

Persons: Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, ”, Gourinchas, it’s, …, ” Gourinchas, “ Organizations: London CNN, International Monetary Fund, IMF, Federal Reserve, UBS, European Central Bank, Reuters Locations: United States, Washington, China’s, India, Europe, China

LONDON (AP) — The International Monetary Fund’s chief economist has advised the U.K. government to avoid further tax cuts amid expectations Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s battered administration will do just that to win over voters in an election year. “In that context, we would advise against further discretionary tax cuts as envisioned and discussed now,” Gourinchas said. Hunt is focusing on longer-term projections, noting that the IMF expects growth to strengthen over the next few years. “It is too early to know whether further reductions in tax will be affordable in the budget, but we continue to believe that smart tax reductions can make a big difference in boosting growth,” he said. Concerns about responsible fiscal policies are especially sensitive for Sunak and Hunt as they came to power after their predecessors were widely criticized for announcing millions of pounds in tax cuts without saying how they would be paid for.

Persons: Rishi Sunak’s, Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Jeremy Hunt, Jan, Gourinchas, “, ” Gourinchas, Hunt, ” Organizations: Monetary Fund’s, National Health Service, IMF, Treasury, Conservative Party Locations: Britain

Global inflation is expected to fall to 5.8% in 2024 and to 4.4% in 2025. “The global economy begins the final descent toward a soft landing, with inflation declining steadily and growth holding up. That is not to say the global economy is without challenges. It also raises concerns about a revival of global inflation pressures as importers face surging shipping costs,” said Lydia Boussour, senior economist at EY-Parthenon. “For now, we don’t expect the situation in the Red Sea to substantially alter the outlook for global inflation and global monetary policy this year,” she added.

Persons: ” Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, ”, Lydia Boussour, Gourinchas, ” Gourinchas, Eric LeCompte, LeCompte Organizations: Monetary Fund, IMF, Federal Reserve, . News, USA Locations: U.S, China, –, Ukraine, Iranian, Suez, EY, India, Russia, East, Central Asia, Saudi Arabia, “, Brazil

☆ The IMF sees greater chance of a ‘soft landing’ for the global economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-10 | by ( Hanna Ziady | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

The IMF’s projections for growth and inflation are “increasingly consistent with a ‘soft landing’ scenario… especially in the United States,” Gourinchas continued. The 20 countries using the euro are expected to grow collectively by 0.7% this year and 1.2% next year, a downgrade of 0.2 percentage points and 0.3 percentage points respectively from July. The IMF upgraded its growth forecasts for the US economy to 2.1% in 2023 and 1.5% in 2024 — an improvement of 0.3 percentage points and 0.5 percentage points respectively. “The strongest recovery among major economies has been in the United States,” the IMF said. The IMF revised its forecasts for global inflation to 6.9% this year and 5.8% next year — an increase of 0.1 percentage point and 0.6 percentage points respectively.

Persons: Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, ” Gourinchas, Qilai Shen, Gourinchas Organizations: London CNN —, Monetary Fund, IMF, Bloomberg, Getty, Brent Locations: United States, China, Europe, Ukraine, Guangzhou, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Russia

☆ IMF urges BOJ to move away from yield control, prepare for future tightening
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-25 | by ( Leika Kihara | Andrea Shalal | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

TOKYO/WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The Bank of Japan should start preparing for future monetary tightening by moving away from its yield control policy, the International Monetary Fund’s chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said on Tuesday. FILE PHOTO: A Japanese flag flutters on the Bank of Japan building in Tokyo, Japan, March 15, 2016. They have also said the BOJ was mindful of the cost of YCC such as market distortions caused by its heavy bond buying. Widening the allowance band around its 10-year yield target, a step it took last December, could be among options to mitigate the side-effects of YCC, analysts say. Growth in the world’s third-largest economy is expected to slow to 1.0% in 2024 as the effect of past stimulus measures dissipate, the IMF said.

Persons: Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Toru Hanai, ” Gourinchas, Gourinchas, Kazuo Ueda Organizations: Bank of Japan, Monetary Fund’s, REUTERS, Reuters Locations: TOKYO, WASHINGTON, Tokyo, Japan

☆ IMF: Global economy is improving but inflation is still enemy No. 1
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-25 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Minneapolis CNN —The global economy is showing more resilience than economists previously thought — but, although some risks have abated, choppy waters could still be ahead, the International Monetary Fund said Tuesday. In its latest update to its World Economic Outlook, the agency said it expects global growth of 3% in both 2023 and 2024. “Global economic activity has proven resilient in the first quarter of this year, leading to a modest upward revision for global growth in 2023,” Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the IMF’s chief economist, said in a statement. From 2000 to 2019, annual global economic growth averaged 3.8%, according to the IMF. When looking across the global economy, there are concerns that China’s recovery could slow further, as its debt-laden real estate sector weighs on growth, according to the report.

Persons: ” Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Chris Ratcliffe, ” Gourinchas, Gourinchas, “, ” Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, International Monetary Fund, Economic, IMF, Bloomberg, Getty, Publishing, Federal Reserve Locations: Minneapolis, Oxford, United Kingdom, United States, Europe, Ukraine, Germany, Yantai, Shandong province, China

☆ IMF: Global economic outlook slightly 'less gloomy' than expected
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-30 | by ( Julia Horowitz | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

London CNN —The global economy will weaken this year as rising interest rates and Russia’s war in Ukraine continue to weigh on activity. The International Monetary Fund said Monday that it now expects global growth will slow from 3.4% in 2022 to 2.9% in 2023. The IMF now forecasts growth in China will rebound to 5.2% this year, notably higher than its previous estimate. Global inflation is forecast by the IMF to ease from 8.8% in 2022 to 6.6% in 2023 and 4.3% in 2024. “This time around, the global economic outlook hasn’t worsened,” Gourinchas wrote.

☆ Markets are worried the Fed is going too far
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-12 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Wall Street is worried that yet another high reading on the Consumer Price Index will prompt another massive interest rate increase and inflict more pain on markets and the US economy. But this full-steam-ahead approach by the Fed, based on the notion that iron-clad data is protection enough, has given some economists pause. Last week’s nonfarm payroll report roiled markets, but job openings have now fallen by 1.8 million since their March peak. The IMF believes that global inflation will peak late this year, but will “remain elevated for longer than previously expected,” even as central banks work aggressively to bring it under control. ▸ The Consumer Price Index, a closely watched measures of inflation in the US is due to be released on Thursday.

☆ IMF chief economist says central banks' inflation fight to last into 2024
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-11 | by ( Reuters Staff | ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

FILE PHOTO: A man looks at a shop at the Ameyoko shopping district in Tokyo, Japan, May 20, 2022. REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon/FilesWASHINGTON (Reuters) - Central banks’ fight against inflation may take another two years to play out, increasing unemployment and lowering living standards for many in the world, the International Monetary Fund’s chief economist said on Tuesday. In an interview with Reuters, IMF economic counselor Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said that broad “core” inflation pressures beyond energy and food prices will take time to bring down to central bank targets of about 2%. “Our projection is that this will start coming down, but we will not be back to central bank targets in 2023,” Gourinchas said of inflation. “We’ll be closer to that in 2024.”

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